UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Bantamweight
VS
33%
Moraes
67%
Aldo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aldo
Aldo holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Moraes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Moraes throws more volume but Aldo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moraes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Aldo has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Moraes
Aldo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+70"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Aldo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
44.5
47.3
Performance Avg
53.6
49
Quality of Victory
49
20
Momentum Score
40
Moraes
Aldo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
10
2
Body
5
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance14
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Moraes
Aldo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraes
Aldo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
2
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/33 fights
Chin rating based on
23/42 fights
Moraes
Aldo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
40
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Moraes
Aldo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraes
Aldo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
MoraesAldo
Strike Zones
Moraes
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedAldo
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (85% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Aldo targets the head (67% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraes
RND
Aldo
0/0R00/0
Moraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Aldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Merab DvalishviliRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · KO · R1
Rob FontRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
Aldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12