UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Phoenix, USA
15 Jan 2017
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Saenz
45%
Mendes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FS
Frankie Saenz
13 – 7
5'6"66" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
AM
Augusto Mendes
"Tanquinho"
6 – 2
Well-Rounded43 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Saenz

This is a genuine toss-up — Saenz at 55% vs Mendes at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Saenz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Saenz's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Saenz
Mendes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"+
Reach
65"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Saenz
Mendes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
11.3
35.0
Performance Avg
28.3
25
Quality of Victory
25
75
Momentum Score
40
Saenz
Mendes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
29%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
13
4
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance10
7Clinch5
0Ground0
Saenz
Mendes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Saenz
Mendes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Saenz
Mendes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Saenz
Mendes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Saenz
Mendes
Striking1.0 / 0.7Volume9.0 / 8.7Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Saenz
Strike Zones
Mendes
Saenz
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Mendes
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Saenz targets the head (43% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Mendes targets the head (87% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Saenz
RND
Mendes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Saenz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.0L5.5L5.8W4.5W2.3L4.5L2014-082015-122017-122020-08
WinLossTrend

Mendes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.6L4.5W6.5L2016-022017-012017-04
WinLossTrend

Saenz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01

Mendes · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Frankie SaenzRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02

News & Media

Frankie Saenz · Augusto Mendes
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