UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
47%
Riley
53%
Salas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Aaron Riley
30 – 14
5'8"69" reachSouthpaw45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
JS
Justin Salas
"J-Bomb"
12 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide44 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Salas

This is a genuine toss-up — Riley at 47% vs Salas at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Salas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Salas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Salas has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Riley
Salas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
45
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riley
Salas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
12.7
28.3
Performance Avg
39.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
35
Riley
Salas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.7
32%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
12
4
Body
2
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance15
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Riley
Salas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Salas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
22
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Riley
Salas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Salas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riley
Salas
Striking0.7 / 4.2Volume8.7 / 6.2Grappling2.4 / 1.6Wrestling1.7 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Riley
Strike Zones
Salas
Riley
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY4LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Salas
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY4LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the body (40% of attacks) — Salas absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Salas targets the head (75% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riley
RND
Salas
0/0R00/0

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.8L4.0L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.8L4.5W4.5L5.5L2002-052009-032010-052013-07
WinLossTrend

Salas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0104.5W1.6L4.5W1.5L5.0W2.8L1.5L2012-022013-072014-052016-03
WinLossTrend

Riley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08

Salas · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jason SaggoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · KO · R2
Joe ProctorRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
W · KO · R1
Ben WallRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
L · Sub · R1
Thiago TavaresRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07

News & Media

Aaron Riley · Justin Salas
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