METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
47%
Riley
53%
Salas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin SalaswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Aaron Riley · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Salas
→
Actual result
Salas wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Riley at 47% vs Salas at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Salas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Salas has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RileySalas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Riley
Salas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
45
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riley
Salas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
12.7
28.3
Performance Avg
39.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
35
Riley
Salas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
3.6
8.7
Style: Volume
6.2
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
12
4
Body
2
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance15
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Riley
Salas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Salas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
22
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Riley
Salas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Salas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riley
Salas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
RileySalas
Strike Zones
Riley
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedSalas
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the body (40% of attacks) — Salas absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Salas targets the head (75% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riley
RND
Salas
0/0R00/0
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
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L · R2
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W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonDecision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Salas · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jason SaggoKO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · KO · R2
Joe ProctorKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
W · KO · R1
Ben WallKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
L · Sub · R1
Thiago TavaresSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07