METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
47%
Riley
53%
Salas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin SalaswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Aaron Riley · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Salas
→
Actual result
Salas wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Riley at 47% vs Salas at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Salas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Salas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Salas has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RileySalas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Riley
Salas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
45
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riley
Salas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
12.7
28.3
Performance Avg
39.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
35
Riley
Salas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.7
32%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
12
4
Body
2
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance15
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Riley
Salas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Salas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
22
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Riley
Salas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Salas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riley
Salas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
RileySalas
Strike Zones
Riley
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedSalas
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the body (40% of attacks) — Salas absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Salas targets the head (75% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riley
RND
Salas
0/0R00/0
Riley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Salas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Salas · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jason SaggoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · KO · R2
Joe ProctorRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
W · KO · R1
Ben WallRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
L · Sub · R1
Thiago TavaresRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07