UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Calgary, Canada
21 Jul 2012
Lightweight
VS
49%
Clarke
51%
Kuivanen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kuivanen
This is a genuine toss-up — Clarke at 49% vs Kuivanen at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Clarke has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Clarke throws more volume but Kuivanen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Clarke's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Clarke
Kuivanen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
72"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Clarke
Kuivanen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.9
11.5
33.8
Performance Avg
28.3
37
Quality of Victory
25
10
Momentum Score
40
Clarke
Kuivanen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
15
0
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch3
0Ground12
Clarke
Kuivanen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Clarke
Kuivanen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/34 fights
Clarke
Kuivanen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Clarke
Kuivanen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Clarke
Kuivanen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
ClarkeKuivanen
Strike Zones
Clarke
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedKuivanen
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Clarke targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kuivanen absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Kuivanen targets the head (79% of attacks) — Clarke absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Clarke
RND
Kuivanen
0/0R00/0
Clarke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Kuivanen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Clarke · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alex WhiteRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R1
Joe DuffyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
W · Sub · R2
Al IaquintaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
Kuivanen · Last 3
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Mitch ClarkeRating 4.5Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02