METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Featherweight
VS
57%
Hernandez
43%
Algeo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bill AlgeowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alexander Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hernandez
→
Actual result
Algeo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 57% vs Algeo at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Algeo has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HernandezAlgeo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hernandez
Algeo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Hernandez
Algeo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
39.1
47.4
Performance Avg
41.5
42
Quality of Victory
36
90
Momentum Score
51
Hernandez
Algeo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
4.3
5.1
Style: Volume
5.8
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
19
19
Body
13
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
31Distance38
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hernandez
Algeo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hernandez
Algeo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
50
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
Hernandez
Algeo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Hernandez
Algeo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Algeo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
HernandezAlgeo
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedAlgeo
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the body (61% of attacks) — Algeo absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Algeo targets the head (49% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 49% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Algeo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · Last 5
Upcoming
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L · KO · R2
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W · Sub · R2
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