UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Featherweight
VS
57%
Hernandez
43%
Algeo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 57% vs Algeo at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Algeo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Algeo has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Algeo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Hernandez
Algeo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
39.1
47.4
Performance Avg
41.5
42
Quality of Victory
36
90
Momentum Score
51
Hernandez
Algeo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
19
19
Body
13
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
31Distance38
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hernandez
Algeo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Algeo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
50
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
Hernandez
Algeo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Hernandez
Algeo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Algeo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
HernandezAlgeo
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedAlgeo
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the body (61% of attacks) — Algeo absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Algeo targets the head (49% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 49% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Algeo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Algeo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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L · KO · R2
Dooho ChoiRating 4.5KO/TKO
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