UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia
Kallang, Singapore
17 Jun 2017
Welterweight
VS
25%
Kim
75%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Covington throws more volume but Kim connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kim's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kim
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kim
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
61.2
52.3
Performance Avg
53.2
36
Quality of Victory
42
99
Momentum Score
100
Kim
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
0
Body
3
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
9Distance16
0Clinch2
1Ground1
Kim
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kim
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Kim
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Kim
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
42%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kim
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
KimCovington
Strike Zones
Kim
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCovington
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kim targets the head (90% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Kim absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kim
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
Kim · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Kim · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Dominic WatersRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Sub · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5Submission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
L · KO · R1
Tyron WoodleyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · 2014-08
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09