UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
94%
Bukauskas
6%
Cerqueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bukauskas
Bukauskas is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bukauskas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Striking split: Bukauskas throws more volume but Cerqueira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerqueira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
32+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
3.4
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
81
Momentum Score
0
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
3
Body
0
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
42
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BukauskasCerqueira
Strike Zones
Bukauskas
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCerqueira
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (69% of attacks) — Cerqueira absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Cerqueira targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bukauskas
RND
Cerqueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Bukauskas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Cerqueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Bukauskas · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
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W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
Cerqueira · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Julius WalkerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Ibo AslanRating 2.4KO/TKO
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