METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
94%
Bukauskas
6%
Cerqueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:12
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20 – 7
6'3"76" reachSwitch32 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 56
★ Official Result
Modestas BukauskaswinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:12
def. Rafael Cerqueira · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bukauskas
→
Actual result
Bukauskas wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Bukauskas is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bukauskas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.
Risk flags
Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerqueira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BukauskasCerqueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
32+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
3.4
51.0
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
94
Momentum Score
0
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
4.8
Style: Volume
0.0
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
3
Body
0
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
42
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bukauskas
Cerqueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BukauskasCerqueira
Strike Zones
Bukauskas
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCerqueira
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (69% of attacks) — Cerqueira absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Cerqueira targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bukauskas
RND
Cerqueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Bukauskas · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Oumar SyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovKO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaDecision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
Cerqueira · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Julius WalkerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Ibo AslanKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10