UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2016
Middleweight
VS
78%
Whittaker
22%
Natal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Whittaker
Whittaker is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Whittaker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Whittaker throws more volume but Natal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Whittaker's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Whittaker
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+77"
35+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Whittaker
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.4
15.2
56.0
Performance Avg
40.5
46
Quality of Victory
30
71
Momentum Score
81
Whittaker
Natal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
9
5
Body
0
12
Leg
10
RangeRange
31Distance18
1Clinch1
3Ground0
Whittaker
Natal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Whittaker
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Whittaker
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Whittaker
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
35%
22%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Whittaker
Natal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
WhittakerNatal
Strike Zones
Whittaker
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedNatal
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Whittaker targets the head (51% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Whittaker
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0
Whittaker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Whittaker · Last 5
Upcoming
Nikita KrylovUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05