METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2016
Middleweight
VS
78%
Whittaker
22%
Natal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Robert WhittakerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rafael Natal · UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Whittaker
→
Actual result
Whittaker wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Whittaker is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Whittaker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Whittaker's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WhittakerNatal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Whittaker
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+77"
35+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Whittaker
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.0
15.2
56.6
Performance Avg
40.5
46
Quality of Victory
30
71
Momentum Score
81
Whittaker
Natal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
4.9
Style: Pressure
3.2
6.3
Style: Volume
7.3
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
9
5
Body
0
12
Leg
10
RangeRange
31Distance18
1Clinch1
3Ground0
Whittaker
Natal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Whittaker
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Whittaker
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
81
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Whittaker
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
22%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Whittaker
Natal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
WhittakerNatal
Strike Zones
Whittaker
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedNatal
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Whittaker targets the head (51% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Whittaker
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0
Whittaker · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevSubmission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschKO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerDecision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallDecision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05