UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia
Kallang, Singapore
17 Jun 2017
Featherweight
VS
81%
Caceres
19%
Dy
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Caceres
Caceres is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dy throws more volume but Caceres connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres
Dy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Dy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
9.3
42.2
Performance Avg
25.0
34
Quality of Victory
25
76
Momentum Score
22
Caceres
Dy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
8
5
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
16Distance15
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Caceres
Dy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Dy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Caceres
Dy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · R2
Caceres
Dy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Dy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
CaceresDy
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedDy
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (76% of attacks) — Dy absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Dy targets the head (53% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Dy
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Dy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Dy · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Shane YoungRating 2.8KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
WulijiburenRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Teruto IshiharaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · R2
Alex CaceresRating 5UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06