UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2017
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Werdum
47%
Overeem
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
6'4"77" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
AO
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47 – 19
Knockout Artist46 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Werdum

This is a genuine toss-up — Werdum at 53% vs Overeem at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Overeem has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Werdum's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Overeem has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Werdum
Overeem
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
77"
Reach
+80"
48
Age
+46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Werdum
Overeem
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
18.1
57.8
Performance Avg
55.0
52
Quality of Victory
52
72
Momentum Score
56
Werdum
Overeem
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
73%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
6
4
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance5
4Clinch1
7Ground0
Werdum
Overeem
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Werdum
Overeem
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/33 fights
Chin rating based on
20/66 fights
Werdum
Overeem
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
56
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Werdum
Overeem
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
9
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Werdum
Overeem
Striking4.7 / 8.7Volume4.0 / 3.2Grappling3.5 / 0.6Wrestling2.4 / 0.4Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
Werdum
Strike Zones
Overeem
Werdum
Attacking
20HEAD4BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Overeem
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD4BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Werdum targets the head (83% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Overeem targets the head (100% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Werdum
RND
Overeem
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Overeem · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.0L1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.8W2.6L5.5W4.5W1.9L4.9L6.2W5.0W5.1L5.1W5.7W3.4L2011-122014-122017-032019-042021-02
WinLossTrend

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

Overeem · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

News & Media

Fabricio Werdum · Alistair Overeem
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