UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
61%
Kowalkiewicz
39%
Belbita
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kowalkiewicz
Kowalkiewicz holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Belbita has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Belbita throws more volume but Kowalkiewicz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Belbita has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
64"
Reach
+68"
40
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
20.9
35.6
Performance Avg
25.0
28
Quality of Victory
25
40
Momentum Score
0
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
38%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
18
25
Body
12
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
60Distance34
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
58
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kowalkiewicz
Belbita
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
KowalkiewiczBelbita
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
61 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedBelbita
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
61 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (56% of attacks) — Belbita absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Belbita targets the head (53% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kowalkiewicz
RND
Belbita
0/0R00/0
Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Belbita · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6KO/TKO
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UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Belbita · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Dione BarbosaRating 2.2Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Maria OliveiraRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Gloria de PaulaRating 5.5Decision
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