UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
53%
Turner
47%
Hooker
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Turner
This is a genuine toss-up — Turner at 53% vs Hooker at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Turner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Turner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Turner's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hooker has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Turner
Hooker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
75"
31+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Turner
Hooker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.7
52.3
56.4
Performance Avg
50.3
56
Quality of Victory
45
65
Momentum Score
78
Turner
Hooker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
1.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
49%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
34
8
Body
8
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
23Distance27
5Clinch10
4Ground6
Turner
Hooker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Turner
Hooker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
24/38 fights
Turner
Hooker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
78
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Turner
Hooker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
64%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Turner
Hooker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
8.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
TurnerHooker
Strike Zones
Turner
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedHooker
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Turner targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hooker absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Hooker targets the head (79% of attacks) — Turner absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Turner
RND
Hooker
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Turner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Hooker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Turner · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Sub · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Hooker · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz GamrotRating 5.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jalin TurnerRating 5.7Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Claudio PuellesRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11