UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
65%
Spann
35%
Alvey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spann
Spann holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Alvey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Spann throws more volume but Alvey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Spann's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spann
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
75"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Spann
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
22.9
54.8
Performance Avg
44.3
50
Quality of Victory
45
10
Momentum Score
43
Spann
Alvey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
21
4
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
18Distance19
2Clinch6
0Ground0
Spann
Alvey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spann
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/35 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Spann
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Spann
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spann
Alvey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
SpannAlvey
Strike Zones
Spann
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedAlvey
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spann targets the head (80% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the head (84% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spann
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Alvey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Spann · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
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L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6Submission
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L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
Alvey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon JungDecision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10