METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
65%
Spann
35%
Alvey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ryan SpannwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Sam Alvey · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Spann
→
Actual result
Spann wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Spann holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Alvey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Spann's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SpannAlvey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Spann
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
75"
35+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Spann
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.9
22.9
53.3
Performance Avg
44.3
50
Quality of Victory
45
10
Momentum Score
43
Spann
Alvey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
5.9
/ 10
7.4
Style: Pressure
5.5
2.8
Style: Volume
4.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
21
4
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
18Distance19
2Clinch6
0Ground0
Spann
Alvey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Spann
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/35 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Spann
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
43
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Spann
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spann
Alvey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
SpannAlvey
Strike Zones
Spann
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedAlvey
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spann targets the head (80% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the head (84% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spann
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0
Spann · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiSubmission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxSubmission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Alvey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon JungDecision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10