UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Philadelphia, USA
30 Mar 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
55%
Kowalkiewicz
45%
Waterson-Gomez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
5'3"64" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 33
Michelle
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
Well-Rounded5-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kowalkiewicz

This is a genuine toss-up — Kowalkiewicz at 55% vs Waterson-Gomez at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kowalkiewicz throws more volume but Waterson-Gomez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waterson-Gomez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
5'3"
64"+
Reach
62"
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
26.5
35.6
Performance Avg
36.8
28
Quality of Victory
35
40
Momentum Score
0
Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
11
8
Body
6
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance13
8Clinch11
0Ground0
Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
15/31 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kowalkiewicz
Waterson-Gomez
Striking0.9 / 0.8Volume8.1 / 6.1Grappling3.0 / 4.3Wrestling2.1 / 3.0Submission1.1 / 3.3Pressure2.2 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Kowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Waterson-Gomez
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
6HEAD8BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD6BODY7LEGS24 absorbed
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
11HEAD6BODY7LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD8BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the body (50% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (46% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kowalkiewicz
RND
Waterson-Gomez
0/0R00/0

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.0W4.2L6.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8L4.6W6.2L3.8L5.5L3.4L6.7L2015-072018-042020-052023-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Waterson-Gomez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

News & Media

Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Michelle Waterson-Gomez
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