UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
Vancouver, Canada
14 Jun 2014
Light Heavyweight
VS
54%
Bader
46%
Cavalcante
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
6'2"74" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 20
RC
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
12 – 7
Knockout Artist3-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 54% vs Cavalcante at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Cavalcante has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Bader throws more volume but Cavalcante connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cavalcante has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bader
Cavalcante
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
74"
42+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Cavalcante
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
17.2
54.2
Performance Avg
44.0
40
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
39
Bader
Cavalcante
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
9
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch3
11Ground0
Bader
Cavalcante
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Cavalcante
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
5/19 fights
Bader
Cavalcante
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Bader
Cavalcante
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bader
Cavalcante
Striking4.8 / 10.0Volume6.3 / 0.4Grappling2.0 / 0.0Wrestling1.4 / 0.0Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Bader
Strike Zones
Cavalcante
Bader
Attacking
3HEAD9BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Cavalcante
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD9BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the body (75% of attacks) — Cavalcante absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Cavalcante targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bader
RND
Cavalcante
0/0R00/0

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Cavalcante · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0101.5L5.0W5.5L4.0L6.1L2013-062013-112014-062015-082016-02
WinLossTrend

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Cavalcante · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · KO · R3
Patrick CumminsRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · KO · R1
Igor PokrajacRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Thiago SilvaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06

News & Media

Ryan Bader · Rafael Cavalcante
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