UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Welterweight
VS
51%
Rowe
49%
Matthews
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rowe
This is a genuine toss-up — Rowe at 51% vs Matthews at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Rowe has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Rowe has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rowe
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
80"+
Reach
73"
35
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rowe
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.0
55.4
49.3
Performance Avg
48.3
53
Quality of Victory
37
52
Momentum Score
100
Rowe
Matthews
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Rowe
Matthews
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rowe
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/18 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Rowe
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rowe
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rowe
Matthews
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
RoweMatthews
Strike Zones
Rowe
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMatthews
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rowe targets the head (100% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rowe absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rowe
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0
Rowe · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Rowe · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Seokhyeon KoRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · KO · R3
Ange LoosaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06