UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
18 Jul 2020
Lightweight
VS
26%
Duffy
74%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvarez
Alvarez is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Duffy's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Duffy
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+77"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Duffy
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.7
60.9
49.0
Performance Avg
59.7
48
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
59
Duffy
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
4
Body
3
4
Leg
8
RangeRange
14Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Duffy
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Duffy
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/21 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Duffy
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Duffy
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Duffy
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
DuffyAlvarez
Strike Zones
Duffy
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Duffy targets the head (43% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Duffy absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Duffy
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
Duffy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Duffy · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6Decision
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L · KO · R2
James VickRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
W · Dec · R3
Reza MadadiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Mitch ClarkeRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6Decision
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W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
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W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4Submission
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