UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2020
Lightweight
VS
42%
Ferguson
58%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 42% vs Oliveira at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
74"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
63.3
54.2
Performance Avg
58.6
49
Quality of Victory
51
52
Momentum Score
100
Ferguson
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
0
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground9
Ferguson
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Ferguson
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
84%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
17
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
FergusonOliveira
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (62% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04