UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Utica, USA
1 Jun 2018
Welterweight
VS
50%
Ellenberger
50%
Saunders
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:56
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
BS
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
22 – 13
Well-Rounded4-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'2"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ellenberger

This is a genuine toss-up — Ellenberger at 50% vs Saunders at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Saunders has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Saunders has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Saunders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+77"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Saunders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
15.6
45.7
Performance Avg
46.4
45
Quality of Victory
46
56
Momentum Score
50
Ellenberger
Saunders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
4Clinch7
0Ground2
Ellenberger
Saunders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Saunders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.9 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
19/35 fights
Ellenberger
Saunders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
50
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Ellenberger
Saunders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Saunders
Striking6.0 / 4.3Volume3.4 / 3.6Grappling1.5 / 3.5Wrestling1.1 / 2.4Submission1.0 / 3.3Pressure5.6 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Saunders
Ellenberger
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Saunders
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (80% of attacks) — Saunders absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Saunders targets the head (70% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Saunders
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Saunders · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W5.2W5.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W2.8L4.7W2.8L2.8L5.0W2.8L1.5L2.9L3.1L2007-122010-032016-012018-092019-12
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Saunders · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · KO · R2
Takashi SatoRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · KO · R1
Lyman GoodRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R2
Sergio MoraesRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · KO · R1
Jake EllenbergerRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06

News & Media

Jake Ellenberger · Ben Saunders
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