★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Welterweight
VS
30%
Woodley
70%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Thompson
Thompson is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Woodley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Woodley connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Woodley's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Woodley
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Woodley
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
46.3
58.9
Performance Avg
48.9
58
Quality of Victory
43
40
Momentum Score
45
Woodley
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
13
1
Body
6
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Woodley
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Woodley
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Woodley
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
45
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Woodley
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Woodley
Thompson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
WoodleyThompson
Strike Zones
Woodley
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedThompson
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Woodley targets the head (50% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (62% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Woodley
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Woodley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Woodley · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12