UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
26%
Aubin-Mercier
74%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Diego
Diego Ferreira
19 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferreira

Ferreira is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
55.1
49.0
Performance Avg
50.7
43
Quality of Victory
45
61
Momentum Score
87
Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
11
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance8
0Clinch0
1Ground5
Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
6
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
87
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
70%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aubin-Mercier
Ferreira
Striking2.6 / 6.2Volume3.5 / 3.6Grappling5.3 / 2.3Wrestling3.7 / 1.6Submission5.7 / 2.0Pressure6.8 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Aubin-Mercier
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Ferreira
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (85% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aubin-Mercier
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.2W6.5L2.8L4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W5.2W6.5L2.8L3.8L5.3W6.1W7.0L3.6L2014-062018-022021-022025-012025-09
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

Ferreira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Diego Ferreira
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