METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
26 Sept 2015
Lightweight
VS
6%
Kotani
94%
Johnson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kajan JohnsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Naoyuki Kotani · UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Johnson is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Risk flags
Kotani's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KotaniJohnson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kotani
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
66"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kotani
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.1
16.1
0.0
Performance Avg
41.6
0
Quality of Victory
31
0
Momentum Score
66
Kotani
Johnson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
3.5
0.0
Style: Volume
7.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
5
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Kotani
Johnson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kotani
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/48 fights
Chin rating based on
7/36 fights
Kotani
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
66
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kotani
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kotani
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
KotaniJohnson
Strike Zones
Kotani
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kotani targets the head (93% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kotani absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kotani
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kotani · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonDecision
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UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverKO/TKO
UFC 75: Champion vs Champion · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Thiago TavaresDecision
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Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Stevie RayDecision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R3
Adriano MartinsKO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Naoyuki KotaniDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09