METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
26 Sept 2015
Lightweight
VS
6%
Kotani
94%
Johnson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kajan JohnsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Naoyuki Kotani · UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Johnson is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kotani's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KotaniJohnson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kotani
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
66"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kotani
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.1
16.1
0.0
Performance Avg
41.6
0
Quality of Victory
31
0
Momentum Score
66
Kotani
Johnson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
0.6
37%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
5
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Kotani
Johnson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kotani
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/48 fights
Chin rating based on
7/36 fights
Kotani
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
66
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kotani
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kotani
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
KotaniJohnson
Strike Zones
Kotani
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kotani targets the head (93% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kotani absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kotani
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kotani · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Kotani · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R2
Yan CabralRating 2.8Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · KO · R2
Norman ParkeRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 75: Champion vs Champion · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Thiago TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04
Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R3
Adriano MartinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Naoyuki KotaniRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09