★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Welterweight
VS
47%
Muhammad
53%
Maddalena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Belal
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 57
JD
Jack Della Maddalena
18 – 4
Striker2-fight slide29 yrsSwitch73" reach5'11"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maddalena

This is a genuine toss-up — Muhammad at 47% vs Maddalena at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Maddalena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Maddalena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Muhammad
Maddalena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Muhammad
Maddalena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
64.0
48.5
Performance Avg
59.9
31
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
80
Muhammad
Maddalena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
56%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
36
1
Body
16
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
25Distance45
1Clinch8
1Ground0
Muhammad
Maddalena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Muhammad
Maddalena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
19 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/29 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Muhammad
Maddalena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
80
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Muhammad
Maddalena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
63%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Muhammad
Maddalena
Striking2.8 / 6.6Volume7.9 / 4.6Grappling2.5 / 1.9Wrestling1.7 / 1.3Submission0.7 / 1.3Pressure3.6 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.6
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Muhammad
Strike Zones
Maddalena
Muhammad
Attacking
26HEAD1BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD16BODY1LEGS53 absorbed
Maddalena
Attacking
36HEAD16BODY1LEGS53 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD1BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Muhammad targets the head (96% of attacks) — Maddalena absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Maddalena targets the head (68% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Muhammad
RND
Maddalena
0/0R00/0

Muhammad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5W3.0L5.4W4.5W4.6W4.5W6.5L4.5W5.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.0W6.4W4.7W5.6W7.0L7.0L2016-072017-112020-062022-102025-11
WinLossTrend

Maddalena · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.7W5.0W5.0W5.9W4.5W5.1W5.7W5.6W7.5L5.0L2022-012023-022024-032026-05
WinLossTrend

Muhammad · Last 5

Upcoming
Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Maddalena · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Belal Muhammad · Jack Della Maddalena
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