UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
Anaheim, USA
29 Jul 2017
Welterweight
VS
59%
Lawler
41%
Cerrone
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
This is a genuine toss-up — Lawler at 59% vs Cerrone at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Lawler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lawler
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
74"+
Reach
73"
44
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawler
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
28.2
51.0
Performance Avg
53.0
45
Quality of Victory
47
90
Momentum Score
63
Lawler
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
8 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
29
12
Body
8
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance24
11Clinch14
0Ground0
Lawler
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Lawler
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Lawler
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
70%
8
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
6
7
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lawler
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
LawlerCerrone
Strike Zones
Lawler
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (61% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (76% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lawler
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01