UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Welterweight
VS
44%
Cerrone
56%
Masvidal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:00
DC
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36 – 17
6'1"73" reachOrthodox43 yrs6-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 28
JM
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35 – 17
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Masvidal

This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 44% vs Masvidal at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cerrone
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
+74"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
35.2
53.0
Performance Avg
47.0
47
Quality of Victory
42
63
Momentum Score
43
Cerrone
Masvidal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
10 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
1
Body
9
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance6
0Clinch9
0Ground3
Cerrone
Masvidal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Cerrone
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
43
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Cerrone
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
50%
10
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cerrone
Masvidal
Striking5.6 / 5.3Volume3.7 / 4.4Grappling2.8 / 1.7Wrestling2.0 / 1.2Submission2.6 / 0.8Pressure6.7 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Cerrone
Strike Zones
Masvidal
Cerrone
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD9BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Masvidal
Attacking
7HEAD9BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the body (100% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the body (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cerrone
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cerrone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W6.4W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.7L5.2W5.0W5.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W1.7L5.0W5.5W5.2W5.9W2.8L5.8L1.5L5.0W6.6L5.0W6.1W4.5W5.3L3.1L3.5L5.5L1.5L3.2L2011-022013-112016-062019-052022-07
WinLossTrend

Masvidal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.6W6.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L6.1L5.1W5.0W4.3W6.6L3.2L6.8L5.7L2013-042015-042017-012020-072023-04
WinLossTrend

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

Masvidal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

News & Media

Donald Cerrone · Jorge Masvidal
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