UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
15 Feb 2014
Featherweight
VS
88%
Oliveira
12%
Ogle
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:40
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
Oliveira is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Striking split: Ogle throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ogle has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Ogle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
69"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Ogle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
8.8
58.6
Performance Avg
21.7
51
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
30
Oliveira
Ogle
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
2
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch3
1Ground2
Oliveira
Ogle
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Ogle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Oliveira
Ogle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Ogle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
17
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Ogle
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.5
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
OliveiraOgle
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedOgle
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (40% of attacks) — Ogle absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Ogle targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Ogle
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ogle · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Ogle · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Maximo BlancoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Cole MillerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Josh GrispiRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02