Islam Makhachev vs Gleison Tibau — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou

Boston, USA

20 Jan 2018

Lightweight

83%

Makhachev

17%

Tibau

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 0:57

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs17-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 74

Gleison Tibau

33 – 14

Well-Rounded4-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"

CFR 15

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:57

def. Gleison Tibau · UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Makhachev is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 59 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Risk flags

Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevTibau

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Makhachev

Tibau

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"

Height

5'10"

70"

Reach

+71"

34+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

Makhachev

Tibau

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

73.9

15.4

69.4

Performance Avg

43.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Makhachev

Tibau

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

7.1

Style: Pressure

3.9

5.0

Style: Volume

6.6

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

2Distance2

0Clinch0

1Ground0

Makhachev

Tibau

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

3.6

/ 10

3.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.5

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

2.5

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Makhachev

Tibau

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.7 stoppage

17 fights ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/29 fights

Chin rating based on

28/47 fights

Makhachev

Tibau

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

17-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

L · R1

L · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Makhachev

Tibau

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

61%

31%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Tibau

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.8

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.6

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.5

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.5

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.9

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.6

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Tibau

Makhachev

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Tibau

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Tibau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Tibau

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Desmond Green

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06

L · KO · R1

Islam Makhachev

KO/TKO

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01

L · R1

Abel Trujillo

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11

L · Sub · R1

Tony Ferguson

Submission

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02

W · Dec · R3

Norman Parke

Decision

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Gleison Tibau

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