UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Boston, USA
20 Jan 2018
Lightweight
VS
83%
Makhachev
17%
Tibau
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:57
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs16-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
Well-Rounded4-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

Makhachev is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 59 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Makhachev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makhachev
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Makhachev
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.5
15.4
69.8
Performance Avg
43.2
53
Quality of Victory
34
100
Momentum Score
74
Makhachev
Tibau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.8
60%
Strike Accuracy
35%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Makhachev
Tibau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
16 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/29 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Makhachev
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
74
16-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Makhachev
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
31%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
8
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Tibau
Striking3.6 / 1.8Volume4.7 / 6.6Grappling4.6 / 3.6Wrestling3.2 / 2.5Submission4.7 / 2.5Pressure7.4 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Tibau
Makhachev
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Tibau
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Gleison Tibau
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