UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
Las Vegas, USA
4 Sept 2021
Heavyweight
VS
65%
Aspinall
35%
Spivac
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aspinall
Aspinall holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Spivac has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spivac has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aspinall
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
78"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aspinall
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
83.0
45.1
77.7
Performance Avg
52.0
70
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
33
Aspinall
Spivac
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.7
1.8
69%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
0
4
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance0
3Clinch0
6Ground0
Aspinall
Spivac
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aspinall
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
8
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Aspinall
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Aspinall
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aspinall
Spivac
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
9.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
AspinallSpivac
Strike Zones
Aspinall
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedSpivac
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aspinall targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aspinall
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aspinall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09