METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
Las Vegas, USA
4 Sept 2021
Heavyweight
VS
65%
Aspinall
35%
Spivac
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
★ Official Result
Tom AspinallwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:30
def. Serghei Spivac · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aspinall
→
Actual result
Aspinall wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Aspinall holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Spivac has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Risk flags
Spivac has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AspinallSpivac
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aspinall
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
78"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aspinall
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
83.0
44.1
77.7
Performance Avg
50.5
70
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
33
Aspinall
Spivac
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
4.5
/ 10
9.7
Style: Pressure
6.3
1.8
Style: Volume
3.8
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
0
4
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance0
3Clinch0
6Ground0
Aspinall
Spivac
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aspinall
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
6
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
16/24 fights
Aspinall
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Aspinall
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aspinall
Spivac
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
9.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
AspinallSpivac
Strike Zones
Aspinall
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedSpivac
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aspinall targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aspinall
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesKO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichKO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Spivac · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Vitor PetrinoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaKO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08