UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Welterweight
VS
6%
Junior
94%
Means
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MA
Marcio Alexandre Junior
"Lyoto"
17 – 4
6'0"75" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
Tim
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Means

Means is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Means has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Means has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Junior
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
37+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Junior
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.4
36.5
0.0
Performance Avg
45.2
0
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
40
Junior
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
2.1
32%
Strike Accuracy
51%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
1
Body
4
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
7Distance14
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Junior
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Junior
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
6
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/21 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Junior
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Junior
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
53%
0
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Junior
Means
Striking0.0 / 5.0Volume0.0 / 4.8Grappling0.0 / 2.2Wrestling0.0 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.3Pressure0.0 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Junior
Strike Zones
Means
Junior
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY5LEGS16 absorbed
Means
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY5LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Junior targets the head (75% of attacks) — Means absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (44% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Junior
RND
Means
0/0R00/0

Junior · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.2L5.6L5.7L2014-052014-122015-12
WinLossTrend

Means · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L6.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W1.9L5.2W5.2W2.8L4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.2L5.0W3.7L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.4L6.1L2.8L5.5W3.3L1.7L2012-022015-042018-112022-102024-10
WinLossTrend

Junior · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05

Means · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10

News & Media

Marcio Alexandre Junior · Tim Means
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