UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Women's Strawweight
VS
55%
Ardelean
45%
Viana
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:36
Alice
Alice Ardelean
12 – 7
5'3"62" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Polyana
Polyana Viana
"Dama de Ferro"
13 – 9
Submission Hunter4-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ardelean

This is a genuine toss-up — Ardelean at 55% vs Viana at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Viana has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Ardelean has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Viana has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ardelean
Viana
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
62"
Reach
+67"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ardelean
Viana
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.0
40.1
43.9
Performance Avg
46.6
33
Quality of Victory
56
63
Momentum Score
0
Ardelean
Viana
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
39%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
1
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ardelean
Viana
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ardelean
Viana
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/19 fights
Chin rating based on
12/22 fights
Ardelean
Viana
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Ardelean
Viana
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ardelean
Viana
Striking1.2 / 3.2Volume6.5 / 0.7Grappling4.3 / 6.0Wrestling3.0 / 4.2Submission3.3 / 7.5Pressure4.1 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Ardelean
Strike Zones
Viana
Ardelean
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY3LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Viana
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY3LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ardelean targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Viana absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Viana targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Ardelean absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ardelean
RND
Viana
0/0R00/0

Ardelean · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.0L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5W2024-072024-102025-052025-112026-05
WinLossTrend

Viana · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W6.1L5.5L1.8L5.0W5.0W6.2L5.0W3.7L4.0L4.6L3.5L2018-022019-082022-052024-012026-05
WinLossTrend

Ardelean · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Polyana VianaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Montserrat Conejo RuizRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Melissa MartinezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Shauna BannonRating 6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Viana · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Alice ArdeleanRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Jaqueline AmorimRating 4.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
L · Sub · R2
Iasmin LucindoRating 3.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
W · KO · R1
Jinh Yu FreyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11

News & Media

Alice Ardelean · Polyana Viana
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