UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
Newark, USA
1 Feb 2014
Lightweight
VS
58%
Makdessi
42%
Patrick
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
18 – 9
5'8"68" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 31
AP
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'11"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makdessi

This is a genuine toss-up — Makdessi at 58% vs Patrick at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makdessi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Makdessi's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Patrick has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makdessi
Patrick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+74"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Makdessi
Patrick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.9
22.8
42.2
Performance Avg
41.4
34
Quality of Victory
32
51
Momentum Score
58
Makdessi
Patrick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
13
10
Body
1
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
23Distance15
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Makdessi
Patrick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Makdessi
Patrick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Makdessi
Patrick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Makdessi
Patrick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
20%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makdessi
Patrick
Striking3.8 / 3.1Volume6.9 / 7.5Grappling1.8 / 1.9Wrestling1.2 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.6 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
Makdessi
Strike Zones
Patrick
Makdessi
Attacking
12HEAD10BODY3LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY4LEGS18 absorbed
Patrick
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY4LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD10BODY3LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makdessi targets the head (48% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Patrick targets the head (72% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makdessi
RND
Patrick
0/0R00/0

Makdessi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8W6.2L5.7L2010-122013-032015-122019-032023-09
WinLossTrend

Patrick · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L6.2L2.8L2013-102016-032018-102022-05
WinLossTrend

Makdessi · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesus PinedoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

Patrick · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Upcoming
Mason Jones
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · KO · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

News & Media

John Makdessi · Alan Patrick
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