UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Milwaukee, USA
15 Dec 2018
Lightweight
VS
58%
Lee
42%
Iaquinta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lee
This is a genuine toss-up — Lee at 58% vs Iaquinta at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Iaquinta has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lee's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Iaquinta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lee
Iaquinta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
77"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lee
Iaquinta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.2
25.8
48.3
Performance Avg
47.0
42
Quality of Victory
38
53
Momentum Score
51
Lee
Iaquinta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
42%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
30
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance33
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lee
Iaquinta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lee
Iaquinta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
13 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Lee
Iaquinta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
51
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Lee
Iaquinta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lee
Iaquinta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
LeeIaquinta
Strike Zones
Lee
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedIaquinta
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lee targets the head (89% of attacks) — Iaquinta absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Iaquinta targets the head (91% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lee
RND
Iaquinta
0/0R00/0
Lee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Iaquinta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Lee · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
Iaquinta · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R5
Kevin LeeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R5
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04