UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
46%
O'Neill
54%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
This is a genuine toss-up — O'Neill at 46% vs Santos at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: O'Neill throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
O'Neill
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
67"
28
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
O'Neill
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.5
68.7
56.5
Performance Avg
59.0
44
Quality of Victory
43
58
Momentum Score
100
O'Neill
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
1.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
9
5
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
25Distance13
0Clinch0
9Ground0
O'Neill
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
O'Neill
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
7/12 fights
O'Neill
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
O'Neill
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
O'Neill
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
O'NeillSantos
Strike Zones
O'Neill
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedSantos
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯O'Neill targets the head (76% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (69% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
O'Neill
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
O'Neill · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
O'Neill · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 6.2Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Ariane da SilvaRating 2.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Roxanne ModafferiRating 4.5Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
Santos · Last 5
Upcoming
Karol RosaUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Melissa CrodenRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R2
Tainara LisboaRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 6.7Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Sub · R1
Mariya AgapovaRating 5.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07