UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
64%
Ruffy
36%
Mullarkey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ruffy
Ruffy holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Mullarkey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ruffy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Ruffy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mullarkey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
74"
29+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.7
38.1
62.0
Performance Avg
40.0
50
Quality of Victory
36
87
Momentum Score
51
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.6
57%
Strike Accuracy
45%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
7
0
Body
4
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
22Distance14
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
51
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ruffy
Mullarkey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
RuffyMullarkey
Strike Zones
Ruffy
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMullarkey
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ruffy targets the head (84% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Mullarkey targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ruffy absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ruffy
RND
Mullarkey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ruffy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Ruffy · Last 5
Upcoming
Michael ChandlerUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Rafael FizievRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Nasrat HaqparastRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 4.5Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09