UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
San Antonio, USA
25 Mar 2023
Featherweight
VS
53%
Peterson
47%
Alexander
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SP
Steven Peterson
"Ocho"
19 – 11
5'10"70" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 28
Lucas
Lucas Alexander
"The Lion"
8 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide30 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Peterson

This is a genuine toss-up — Peterson at 53% vs Alexander at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Peterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Alexander has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alexander has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Peterson
Alexander
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Peterson
Alexander
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.4
25.3
36.0
Performance Avg
25.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
25
Momentum Score
28
Peterson
Alexander
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
21
4
Body
9
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance27
0Clinch1
0Ground6
Peterson
Alexander
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Peterson
Alexander
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
44
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Peterson
Alexander
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Peterson
Alexander
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Peterson
Alexander
Striking4.1 / 0.5Volume6.1 / 8.5Grappling1.6 / 2.4Wrestling1.1 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Peterson
Strike Zones
Alexander
Peterson
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD9BODY4LEGS34 absorbed
Alexander
Attacking
21HEAD9BODY4LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Peterson targets the body (57% of attacks) — Alexander absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Alexander targets the head (62% of attacks) — Peterson absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Peterson
RND
Alexander
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Peterson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.5W5.5L5.7L5.2W5.3W5.7L5.5L2018-022019-032019-092022-022023-03
WinLossTrend

Alexander · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.4
0103.1L4.5W2.3L3.7L2022-102023-032023-112025-02
WinLossTrend

Peterson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Lucas AlexanderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · KO · R2
Martin BravoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07

Alexander · Last 4

L · KO · R2
Bogdan GradRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Jeka SaragihRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Steven PetersonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Sub · R1
Joanderson BritoRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

News & Media

Steven Peterson · Lucas Alexander
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