The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Las Vegas, USA
4 Jun 2011
Welterweight
VS
20%
McGillivray
80%
Bailey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Ryan McGillivray
"The Kid"
12 – 0
5'11"39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 3
SB
Shamar Bailey
16 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsSouthpaw75" reach5'9"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bailey

Bailey is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bailey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Bailey throws more volume but McGillivray connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

McGillivray
Bailey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
Reach
75"
39+
Age
43
—
Stance
Southpaw
McGillivray
Bailey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
10.8
0.0
Performance Avg
28.3
0
Quality of Victory
25
0
Momentum Score
33
McGillivray
Bailey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.7
27%
Strike Accuracy
20%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance4
0Clinch1
1Ground2
McGillivray
Bailey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McGillivray
Bailey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
McGillivray
Bailey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
33
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
McGillivray
Bailey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McGillivray
Bailey
Striking0.0 / 0.7Volume0.0 / 8.7Grappling0.0 / 2.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
McGillivray
Strike Zones
Bailey
McGillivray
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Bailey
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McGillivray targets the head (89% of attacks) — Bailey absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Bailey targets the head (57% of attacks) — McGillivray absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McGillivray
RND
Bailey
0/0R00/0

Bailey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L1.5L2011-062011-092011-11
WinLossTrend

McGillivray · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Shamar BaileyRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06

Bailey · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Danny CastilloRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Ryan McGillivrayRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06

News & Media

Ryan McGillivray · Shamar Bailey
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