METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
Philadelphia, USA
6 Aug 2011
Middleweight
VS
85%
Natal
15%
Bradley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rafael NatalwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Paul Bradley · UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Natal
→
Actual result
Natal wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Natal is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Natal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NatalBradley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Natal
Bradley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
77"
Reach
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Bradley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
2.7
40.5
Performance Avg
0.0
30
Quality of Victory
0
81
Momentum Score
0
Natal
Bradley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
5
Body
1
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance3
5Clinch2
0Ground0
Natal
Bradley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Bradley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
2/31 fights
Natal
Bradley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Bradley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Natal
Bradley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
NatalBradley
Strike Zones
Natal
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBradley
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (38% of attacks) — Bradley absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Bradley targets the head (80% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Natal
RND
Bradley
0/0R00/0
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Bradley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Bradley · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Mike PierceRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5Decision
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08