UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Toronto, Canada
20 Jan 2024
Middleweight
VS
58%
Curtis
42%
Barriault
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Chris
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32 – 13
5'10"75" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Marc-Andre
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Curtis

This is a genuine toss-up — Curtis at 58% vs Barriault at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Barriault throws more volume but Curtis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Barriault has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Curtis
Barriault
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
75"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Curtis
Barriault
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.5
35.6
46.3
Performance Avg
41.9
41
Quality of Victory
45
54
Momentum Score
13
Curtis
Barriault
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
46
Head
41
20
Body
15
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
46Distance42
20Clinch17
0Ground0
Curtis
Barriault
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Curtis
Barriault
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/45 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Curtis
Barriault
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
13
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Curtis
Barriault
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Curtis
Barriault
Striking6.1 / 5.8Volume5.1 / 3.4Grappling1.2 / 2.1Wrestling0.8 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure5.1 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Curtis
Strike Zones
Barriault
Curtis
Attacking
46HEAD20BODY0LEGS66 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD15BODY3LEGS59 absorbed
Barriault
Attacking
41HEAD15BODY3LEGS59 landed
Absorbing
46HEAD20BODY0LEGS66 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Curtis targets the head (70% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Barriault targets the head (69% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Curtis
RND
Barriault
0/0R00/0

Curtis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0W6.6W5.8W6.4L6.4W5.8L4.5W6.8L5.0L5.1W7.1L2021-112022-072024-012025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Barriault · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5L5.5L6.6L5.5W4.5W2.6L5.0W5.4L5.8W5.3W6.2L3.5L1.5L6.3W7.0L6.5L2019-052021-092023-032024-112026-02
WinLossTrend

Curtis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Barriault · Last 5

Upcoming
Brad Tavares
UFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michal OleksiejczukRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Bruno SilvaRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Dustin StoltzfusRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11

News & Media

Chris Curtis · Marc-Andre Barriault
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