UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Oct 2020
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Castro
58%
Felipe
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Felipe
This is a genuine toss-up — Castro at 42% vs Felipe at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Castro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Felipe has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Castro
Felipe
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
39
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Castro
Felipe
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
24.5
46.0
Performance Avg
39.0
60
Quality of Victory
25
29
Momentum Score
65
Castro
Felipe
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.8
30%
Strike Accuracy
52%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
20
0
Body
8
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance18
0Clinch10
0Ground0
Castro
Felipe
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Castro
Felipe
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/9 fights
Chin rating based on
5/13 fights
Castro
Felipe
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
65
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Castro
Felipe
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Castro
Felipe
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.8
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
CastroFelipe
Strike Zones
Castro
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedFelipe
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Castro targets the head (100% of attacks) — Felipe absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Felipe targets the head (71% of attacks) — Castro absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Castro
RND
Felipe
0/0R00/0
Castro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Felipe · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Castro · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jarjis DanhoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Carlos FelipeRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Greg HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
Felipe · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Justin TafaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07