METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Middleweight
VS
39%
Maia
61%
Weidman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris WeidmanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Demian Maia · UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Weidman
→
Actual result
Weidman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Weidman holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Weidman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Weidman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MaiaWeidman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maia
Weidman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+78"
48
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Weidman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
51.1
50.8
Performance Avg
57.0
40
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
51
Maia
Weidman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
48%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
24
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance20
5Clinch7
0Ground1
Maia
Weidman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Weidman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
20/24 fights
Maia
Weidman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Maia
Weidman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
11
Submission Wins
3
10
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maia
Weidman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
MaiaWeidman
Strike Zones
Maia
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedWeidman
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (81% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Weidman targets the head (86% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maia
RND
Weidman
0/0R00/0
Maia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08