METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Middleweight
VS
31%
Maia
69%
Weidman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris WeidmanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Demian Maia · UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Weidman
→
Actual result
Weidman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Weidman holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Weidman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MaiaWeidman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maia
Weidman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+78"
48
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Weidman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
46.0
50.8
Performance Avg
57.0
40
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
51
Maia
Weidman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
4.5
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
5.9
5.0
Style: Volume
4.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
24
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance20
5Clinch7
0Ground1
Maia
Weidman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
11
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maia
Weidman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
20/24 fights
Maia
Weidman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Maia
Weidman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
11
Submission Wins
3
10
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maia
Weidman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
MaiaWeidman
Strike Zones
Maia
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedWeidman
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (81% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Weidman targets the head (86% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maia
RND
Weidman
0/0R00/0
Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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