UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Middleweight
VS
39%
Maia
61%
Weidman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Chris
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16 – 8
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Weidman

Weidman holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Weidman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Weidman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maia
Weidman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+78"
48
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Weidman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
51.1
50.8
Performance Avg
57.0
40
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
51
Maia
Weidman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
48%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
24
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance20
5Clinch7
0Ground1
Maia
Weidman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Weidman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
20/24 fights
Maia
Weidman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Maia
Weidman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
11
Submission Wins
3
10
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Weidman
Striking1.8 / 4.5Volume5.0 / 4.5Grappling5.1 / 3.0Wrestling3.6 / 2.1Submission5.0 / 2.5Pressure5.8 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Maia
Strike Zones
Weidman
Maia
Attacking
17HEAD4BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD3BODY1LEGS28 absorbed
Weidman
Attacking
24HEAD3BODY1LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD4BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (81% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Weidman targets the head (86% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Weidman
0/0R00/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Weidman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.1W5.1W5.1W4.5W5.0W3.4L4.0L2.8L5.6W4.0L2.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.8W3.5L2011-032013-072016-112020-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Weidman · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08

News & Media

Demian Maia · Chris Weidman
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