UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Sao Paulo, Brazil
22 Sept 2018
Lightweight
VS
62%
Oliveira
38%
Giagos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:22
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
Oliveira holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Giagos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Giagos throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Giagos has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Giagos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
71"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Giagos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
38.8
58.6
Performance Avg
41.0
51
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
64
Oliveira
Giagos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
5
Body
0
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Oliveira
Giagos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Giagos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Oliveira
Giagos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
64
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Oliveira
Giagos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
17
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Giagos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
OliveiraGiagos
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGiagos
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (44% of attacks) — Giagos absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Giagos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Giagos
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Giagos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Giagos · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · KO · R1
Ricky GlennRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
L · Sub · R1
Thiago MoisesRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09