UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Lightweight
VS
53%
Tavares
47%
Lentz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
5'7"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
NL
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tavares

This is a genuine toss-up — Tavares at 53% vs Lentz at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lentz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tavares
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
16.0
48.8
Performance Avg
45.3
42
Quality of Victory
35
81
Momentum Score
53
Tavares
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
17
4
Body
4
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
29Distance25
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Tavares
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Tavares
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Tavares
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tavares
Lentz
Striking2.2 / 3.4Volume4.4 / 6.4Grappling5.0 / 2.7Wrestling3.5 / 1.9Submission5.0 / 1.4Pressure6.0 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Tavares
Strike Zones
Lentz
Tavares
Attacking
25HEAD4BODY2LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD4BODY7LEGS28 absorbed
Lentz
Attacking
17HEAD4BODY7LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD4BODY2LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (81% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (61% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tavares
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Lentz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.4L4.5W5.2W7.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.2L6.9L6.8L2009-092012-012015-052018-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
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L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Lentz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Thiago Tavares · Nik Lentz
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