UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Winnipeg, Canada
18 Apr 2026
Women's Bantamweight
VS
59%
Croden
41%
Zhelezniakova
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Melissa
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
8 – 3
5'9"68" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Daria
Daria Zhelezniakova
"Iron Lady"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Croden

This is a genuine toss-up — Croden at 59% vs Zhelezniakova at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Croden has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Croden has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Croden
Zhelezniakova
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
68"
Reach
68"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Croden
Zhelezniakova
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.9
40.9
49.2
Performance Avg
35.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
79
Momentum Score
61
Croden
Zhelezniakova
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
40%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
12
6
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance12
8Clinch1
9Ground0
Croden
Zhelezniakova
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Croden
Zhelezniakova
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Croden
Zhelezniakova
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
61
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Croden
Zhelezniakova
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Croden
Zhelezniakova
Striking6.3 / 1.0Volume5.3 / 9.0Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Croden
Strike Zones
Zhelezniakova
Croden
Attacking
21HEAD6BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Zhelezniakova
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD6BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Croden targets the head (78% of attacks) — Zhelezniakova absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Zhelezniakova targets the head (92% of attacks) — Croden absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Croden
RND
Zhelezniakova
0/0R00/0

Croden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.9W7.2L4.8W2025-102025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Zhelezniakova · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.6W2.5L5.2W6.6L2024-032024-092025-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Croden · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Tainara LisboaRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

Zhelezniakova · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Melissa CrodenRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Melissa MullinsRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Ailin PerezRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Montse RendonRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Melissa Croden · Daria Zhelezniakova
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