UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
59%
Noke
41%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:59
KN
Kyle Noke
22 – 10
6'1"76" reachSouthpaw46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Noke

This is a genuine toss-up — Noke at 59% vs Nakamura at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Noke has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Noke has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Noke's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Noke
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
73"
46
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Noke
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
13.7
50.4
Performance Avg
36.2
51
Quality of Victory
36
59
Momentum Score
26
Noke
Nakamura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
37%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
20
3
Body
4
8
Leg
2
RangeRange
15Distance16
2Clinch1
1Ground9
Noke
Nakamura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.1
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Noke
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Noke
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
26
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Noke
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Noke
Nakamura
Striking6.0 / 0.7Volume2.3 / 4.7Grappling3.1 / 5.2Wrestling2.1 / 3.6Submission3.3 / 5.0Pressure7.3 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Noke
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Noke
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY8LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD4BODY2LEGS26 absorbed
Nakamura
Attacking
20HEAD4BODY2LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY8LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Noke targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Nakamura targets the head (77% of attacks) — Noke absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Noke
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Noke · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.2W5.2W5.0W1.7L5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.5L2010-062011-082014-042016-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Noke · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R2
Keita NakamuraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Peter SobottaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Jonavin WebbRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

News & Media

Kyle Noke · Keita Nakamura
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