UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jul 2010
Welterweight
VS
36%
Petz
64%
Roberts
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FP
Forrest Petz
"The Meat Cleaver"
26 – 10
5'9"71" reachOrthodox50 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
DR
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
15 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'10"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Roberts

Roberts holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Petz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Roberts has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Petz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Petz's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Petz
Roberts
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+74"
50
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Petz
Roberts
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.7
17.0
26.4
Performance Avg
43.7
25
Quality of Victory
44
30
Momentum Score
49
Petz
Roberts
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.4
26%
Strike Accuracy
20%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
0
Body
0
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Petz
Roberts
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Petz
Roberts
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
72
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/36 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Petz
Roberts
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
49
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Petz
Roberts
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Petz
Roberts
Striking0.6 / 0.9Volume8.6 / 3.5Grappling2.4 / 6.1Wrestling1.7 / 4.3Submission0.0 / 6.7Pressure0.9 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
0.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Petz
Strike Zones
Roberts
Petz
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY7LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Roberts
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY7LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Petz targets the legs (78% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Roberts targets the head (100% of attacks) — Petz absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Petz
RND
Roberts
0/0R00/0

Petz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L2006-082007-042007-102010-09
WinLossTrend

Roberts · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2010-032010-102011-042012-01
WinLossTrend

Petz · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Brian FosterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · 2010-09
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RobertsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
L · Dec · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Luigi FioravantiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06
L · Dec · R3
Kuniyoshi HironakaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04

Roberts · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
L · Dec · R3
Rich AttonitoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Claude PatrickRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · Sub · R1
Greg SotoRating 5
Submission
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
W · Sub · R1
Mike GuymonRating 5
Submission
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

News & Media

Forrest Petz · Daniel Roberts
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