★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
67%
Anjos
33%
Alvarez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Anjos
Anjos holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Alvarez has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Alvarez throws more volume but Anjos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Anjos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvarez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Anjos
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Anjos
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.8
19.3
47.7
Performance Avg
52.9
41
Quality of Victory
50
49
Momentum Score
66
Anjos
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
34
2
Body
8
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance20
2Clinch22
0Ground3
Anjos
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Anjos
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/49 fights
Chin rating based on
8/35 fights
Anjos
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
66
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Anjos
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Anjos
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
AnjosAlvarez
Strike Zones
Anjos
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
45 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
45 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Anjos targets the head (75% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (76% of attacks) — Anjos absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Anjos
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
Anjos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Anjos · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.6Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Vicente LuqueRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R5
Rafael FizievRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07