UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Louisville, USA
3 Mar 2011
Lightweight
VS
53%
Stevenson
47%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JS
Joe Stevenson
"Daddy"
33 – 16
5'7"70" reachOrthodox43 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stevenson

This is a genuine toss-up — Stevenson at 53% vs Castillo at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Stevenson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Stevenson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stevenson
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stevenson
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
17.2
49.2
Performance Avg
40.6
49
Quality of Victory
34
86
Momentum Score
89
Stevenson
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
0
Body
8
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch4
0Ground12
Stevenson
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Stevenson
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
89
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Stevenson
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stevenson
Castillo
Striking2.3 / 3.9Volume4.0 / 6.7Grappling3.9 / 1.7Wrestling2.7 / 1.2Submission3.8 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Stevenson
Strike Zones
Castillo
Stevenson
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD8BODY6LEGS22 absorbed
Castillo
Attacking
8HEAD8BODY6LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (36% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 36% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stevenson
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0

Stevenson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L4.2W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L5.2W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5L5.5L2005-112007-042008-112010-022011-06
WinLossTrend

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Stevenson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

News & Media

Joe Stevenson · Danny Castillo
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