METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Louisville, USA
3 Mar 2011
Lightweight
VS
53%
Stevenson
47%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Danny CastillowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Joe Stevenson · UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Stevenson
→
Actual result
Castillo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Stevenson at 53% vs Castillo at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Stevenson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Stevenson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StevensonCastillo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stevenson
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
44+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stevenson
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
17.2
49.2
Performance Avg
40.6
49
Quality of Victory
34
86
Momentum Score
89
Stevenson
Castillo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
0
Body
8
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch4
0Ground12
Stevenson
Castillo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Stevenson
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
89
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Stevenson
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stevenson
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
StevensonCastillo
Strike Zones
Stevenson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (36% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stevenson
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Stevenson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Castillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Stevenson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04