UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Miami, USA
8 Apr 2023
Middleweight
VS
54%
Curtis
46%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Chris
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32 – 13
5'10"75" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Curtis

This is a genuine toss-up — Curtis at 54% vs Gastelum at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Curtis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Curtis
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Curtis
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.5
41.4
46.3
Performance Avg
47.4
41
Quality of Victory
42
54
Momentum Score
28
Curtis
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
23
11
Body
4
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
32Distance27
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Curtis
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Curtis
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
38
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/45 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Curtis
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
28
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Curtis
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
36%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Curtis
Gastelum
Striking6.1 / 3.3Volume5.1 / 6.3Grappling1.2 / 2.7Wrestling0.8 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure5.1 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Curtis
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Curtis
Attacking
25HEAD11BODY1LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD4BODY3LEGS30 absorbed
Gastelum
Attacking
23HEAD4BODY3LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD11BODY1LEGS37 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Curtis targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (77% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Curtis
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0

Curtis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0W6.6W5.8W6.4L6.4W5.8L4.5W6.8L5.0L5.1W7.1L2021-112022-072024-012025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Curtis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

News & Media

Chris Curtis · Kelvin Gastelum
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