METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2023
Flyweight
VS
58%
Royval
42%
Nicolau
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:09
★ Official Result
Brandon RoyvalwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:09
def. Matheus Nicolau · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Royval
→
Actual result
Royval wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Royval at 58% vs Nicolau at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Royval has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Royval's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RoyvalNicolau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Royval
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
34
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Royval
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.7
38.0
50.5
Performance Avg
44.7
43
Quality of Victory
32
65
Momentum Score
49
Royval
Nicolau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
3.9
4.2
Style: Volume
7.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Royval
Nicolau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Royval
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Royval
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Royval
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Royval
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
RoyvalNicolau
Strike Zones
Royval
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Royval targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Royval
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Royval · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Lone'er KavanaghSubmission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanDecision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03