UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2023
Flyweight
VS
57%
Royval
43%
Nicolau
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Royval
This is a genuine toss-up — Royval at 57% vs Nicolau at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Royval throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Royval's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Royval
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Royval
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
38.0
48.2
Performance Avg
44.7
42
Quality of Victory
32
62
Momentum Score
49
Royval
Nicolau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Royval
Nicolau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Royval
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Royval
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
62
49
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Royval
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Royval
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
RoyvalNicolau
Strike Zones
Royval
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Royval targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Royval
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Royval · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Nicolau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Royval · Last 5
Upcoming
Lone'er KavanaghUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03