UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Gonzaga
42%
McCully
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gonzaga
This is a genuine toss-up — Gonzaga at 58% vs McCully at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gonzaga has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Gonzaga has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gonzaga's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gonzaga
McCully
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
47+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzaga
McCully
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
13.5
53.9
Performance Avg
35.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
50
Gonzaga
McCully
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
34%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
2
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Gonzaga
McCully
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzaga
McCully
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
8
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Gonzaga
McCully
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
50
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gonzaga
McCully
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
92%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gonzaga
McCully
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
GonzagaMcCully
Strike Zones
Gonzaga
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMcCully
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gonzaga targets the legs (50% of attacks) — McCully absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯McCully targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gonzaga absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gonzaga
RND
McCully
0/0R00/0
Gonzaga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
McCully · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Gonzaga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
McCully · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Mike RussowRating 5.5Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
W · Dec · R3
Eddie SanchezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops · 2008-12
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
Antoni HardonkRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04