UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Gonzaga
42%
McCully
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:57
GG
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
17 – 11
6'2"76" reachOrthodox47 yrsStriker
CFR 19
JM
Justin McCully
"The Insane One"
11 – 5
Well-Rounded50 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gonzaga

This is a genuine toss-up — Gonzaga at 58% vs McCully at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gonzaga has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Gonzaga has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gonzaga's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gonzaga
McCully
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
47+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzaga
McCully
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
13.5
53.9
Performance Avg
35.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
50
Gonzaga
McCully
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
34%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
2
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Gonzaga
McCully
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzaga
McCully
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
8
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Gonzaga
McCully
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
50
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gonzaga
McCully
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
92%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gonzaga
McCully
Striking6.9 / 1.0Volume1.8 / 9.0Grappling2.9 / 2.4Wrestling2.0 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure8.1 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Gonzaga
Strike Zones
McCully
Gonzaga
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY3LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
McCully
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY3LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gonzaga targets the legs (50% of attacks) — McCully absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯McCully targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gonzaga absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gonzaga
RND
McCully
0/0R00/0

Gonzaga · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W2.8L2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L5.0W5.0W6.6L1.5L2.8L4.5W2.7L2005-112008-072012-012014-122016-04
WinLossTrend

McCully · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-072008-122009-08
WinLossTrend

Gonzaga · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01

McCully · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Mike RussowRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
W · Dec · R3
Eddie SanchezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops · 2008-12
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
Antoni HardonkRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04

News & Media

Gabriel Gonzaga · Justin McCully
← Back to fights